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  • Shell : New Energy Security Scenarios explore how the world could evolve
    édité le 21/03/2023 - Plus de news de "SHELL" - Voir la fiche entreprise de "SHELL"


Shell : New Energy Security Scenarios explore how the world could evolve
Shell plc has published its latest scenarios: the Energy Security Scenarios. The two new scenarios explore how the world could evolve following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Specifically, they look into the possible energy and climate outcomes that could result from a world that has security as its dominant concern.

Shell Scenarios are not predictions or expectations of what will happen, or what will probably happen. They are not expressions of Shell’s strategy, and they are not Shell’s business plan; they are one of the many inputs used by Shell to stretch thinking whilst making decisions.

The first scenario, called Archipelagos, follows how today’s pressures could play out to the end of the century. National interest remains key and renewables are mainly seen as a way to improve energy security. By 2100, net-zero emissions is within sight, but the world has failed to meet the goal of the Paris Agreement. This scenario is “exploratory”: it seeks to plot a course from where the world stood in 2022.

The second scenario, called Sky 2050, shows just how fast the world must move to meet the goal of the Paris Agreement. Global climate security becomes the primary concern. Nations race to switch to cleaner energy and a competitive landscape emerges for technology, minerals and manufacturing capacity. Competition drives rapid change and the world reaches net-zero emissions in 2050. This scenario is “normative” and extremely challenging: it set goals of net-zero emissions by 2050 and warming restricted to below 1.5°C by 2100, and then worked back to the realities of 2022 to explore how these end points could be reached.

Key points from the Energy Security Scenarios include:

   - Fossil fuels lose market share. The energy system is decarbonising, the questions is: how fast?
T   - here is no realistic path to an instant and steep drop in emissions.
   - The average temperature rise is highly likely to breach 1.5°C.
   - The future of energy is electricity, although hydrogen and bioenergy have significant roles to play.
   - Bringing the temperature rise back down below 1.5°C will require large-scale carbon removal and storage.

Scenarios are informed by data, constructed using models and contain insights from leading experts in the relevant fields. Ultimately, for all readers, scenarios are intended as an aid to making better decisions. They stretch minds, broaden horizons and explore assumptions.

Notes:
   - The Sky 2050 scenario is a normative scenario, which means we assume that society meets the most ambitious goal of the Paris agreement: limiting the increase in global average temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this century, and then we work back in presenting how this may occur.
   - Our Archipelagos scenario is an explorative scenario, which means we do not assume the final outcome, rather we use plausible assumptions based on the data to determine what we believe will occur in the future.

About Shell plc

Shell plc is incorporated in England and Wales, has its headquarters in London and is listed on the London, Amsterdam, and New York stock exchanges. Shell companies have operations in more than 70 countries and territories with businesses including oil and gas exploration and production; production and marketing of liquefied natural gas and gas to liquids; manufacturing, marketing and shipping of oil products and chemicals and renewable energy projects.


Origine : Communiqué SHELL

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