The IEA notes OPEC’s decision to cut target output levels by a further 2.2 mb/d from 1 January. While a cut in target had been widely anticipated, based on weakening end-user markets and high levels of OECD forward stock cover, there are inherent risks of overshoot during the peak winter heating season, with non-OPEC supplies struggling to recover from prolonged outages. We will need to wait and see the extent to which OPEC statements translate into actual cuts in output, both following the October agreement and this latest proposed reduction. But as they implement this decision, we urge producers to remain mindful of the fragile state of the global economy and to avoid moves that would risk undermining its recovery.