“With the first year of our 2012-2015 growth targets completed, Shell is on track for plans we set out in early 2012, despite headwinds last year,” said Voser. “Shell is competitive and innovative. We are delivering a strategy that others can’t easily repeat, with unique skills in technology and integration and a worldwide set of opportunities for new investment”.

Although the economic outlook remains uncertain for some of Shell’s key markets, Voser said the prospects for long-term growth in global energy demand remained unchanged, driven by rising world population and improving standards of living in developing countries. “Meeting this demand growth with clean and affordable energy is a formidable challenge for our industry and it is a major opportunity for Shell,” he said.

He confirmed Shell’s growth agenda, which aims to deliver $175-$200 billion of total cash flow from operations for 2012-2015, a net capital spending programme of $120-$130 billion, and a competitive dividend for shareholders [1].

Shell’s efforts to expand its pipeline of potential energy projects are paying off, said Voser. “Our drive to increase our options for future projects means that we are more constrained by limits on capital than by limits on opportunities,” he said. “This allows us to prioritise the most attractive opportunities, and reconfigure or exit from less attractive ones.”

Voser said Shell will continue to maintain its investment programme through the economic cycle. “We make long-term decisions on capital allocation and growth choices, and we look through short-term market volatility,” he said. “As our cash flow momentum builds we expect to increase our dividends for shareholders in measured, affordable steps. There is more to come from Shell.”

Key operational milestones in 2012:

- We continued to focus on safe and reliable operations in all of our activities.
- Cash flow from operations (CFFO) of $46 billion, net capital investment of $30 billion, dividends announced of $11 billion.
- New start-ups in 2010-12 added $6 billion of cash flow and 600 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) of production in 2012, around 10% and 20% of the company’s totals. There is more growth to come from these assets.
- Exploration, appraisal and commercial activities in 2012 added ~4 billion barrels of oil equivalent (boe) of potential new resources, comprising 1.5 billion boe in conventional basins, and 2.5 billion boe in resources plays, underpinning Shell’s longer-term growth plans.
- Rigorous portfolio management continues, with $7 billion of exits from non-core positions and strategic partnering, and $5 billion in acquisitions in 2012. Divestments in the last 3 years totalled $21 billion, or around 10% of capital employed, and acquisitions were $17 billion.

Outlook for 2013 and beyond

Voser said Shell will continue the strategic drive to grow its upstream businesses, with ongoing selective investment in downstream.

At the end of 2012, the company had 12.4 billion boe of resources on stream, averaging 3.4 million boe/d of production, and 20 billion boe of resources potential in our active development funnel. Total resources in these two categories represent 26 years of current production.

Shell has ~30 new projects under construction, which should unlock 7 billion barrels of resources, and drive continued financial and production growth. Upstream start-ups in 2010-15 are expected to add some $15 billion of cash flow in 2015, in a $100 oil price scenario. Some 50% of our 2013 capital investment will contribute to cash flow by 2015.

Oil & gas production is expected to average ~4 million boe/d in 2017-2018 compared to 3.3 million boe/d in 2012. Shell’s strategy in upstream is designed to drive financial growth, irrespective of production entitlement, with production growth regarded as a long term proxy for financial growth.

Shell expects to announce a dividend of $0.45 per share for the first quarter of 2013, a 4.7% increase over the fourth quarter of 2012 and year-ago levels.

Shell is allocating capital according to specific strategic themes, with unique technology, fiscal and market characteristics, and executing a global portfolio strategy. By looking at strategy through this thematic lens, Shell can allocate capital and technology most effectively in each play.

- For 2013, we expect $33 billion of net capital investment. Organic capital investment in 2013 is expected to be $34 billion, with a further $2 billion for previously-announced acquisitions, and some $3 billion of asset sales.

- Capital allocation, including exploration, will follow a similar pattern to 2012, with investment directed to Shell’s distinct strategic themes.

- $12 billion in upstream and downstream engines – the mature, cash-generative businesses in Shell, plus corporate.

- Some $18 billion directed at growth priorities, in integrated gas, deep water and resources plays, allocated evenly between these three.

- Future opportunities, such as Nigeria onshore, Kazakhstan, Iraq, the Arctic and heavy oil will see some $4 billion of total spending in 2013.

- The increased spending from 2012-13 will be driven by higher investment in deep water and upstream engines, reflecting Shell’s project flow, and an increase in core exploration spending from $6.4 to $7 billion, allocated to Shell’s strategic themes. The 2013 capital investment programme includes an increase of some $1 billion for non-cash capitalized leases, predominantly in deep water growth projects.

- Exploration drilling activity will step up in 2013-14. Shell expects to drill over 40 high-potential wells in 18 conventional basins, and test 10 key resources plays for tight gas and liquids-rich shales.

[1] Cash Flow From Operations (CFFO) and net capital spending outlook at $80-$100/bbl Brent, and assumes improved US gas and downstream environment from 2012. CFFO excludes working capital movements.